X-12 Arima Is Back: A Look At ADP's "Seasonal Adjustment" Protocol
Tyler Durden
01/03/2013

"You know it: our old friend the BLS's very own Arima X-12 makes a very unexpected appearance. Why a private entity, the ADP, which has no links to the Bureau of Labor Statistics is using the same adjustment process used by the government agency, to divine its final, seasonally adjusted number, especially when it refuses to disclose its unadjusted data, is anyone's guess. Or is the ADP number now nothing but a reinforcing surrogate to double the credibility of the BLS data, whose credibility in recent months has also hit unseen lows? It certainly would explain the recent revision in ADP methodology, and the fact that administration sycophant, Moody's Mark Zandi is now the "brains" behind this meaningless number (not to mention the resulting humiliation for all those who had though that ADP data, like that from the NAR, is even remotely credible).

From the ADP's "Methodology-Full Detail"

It reminds me of that mancala game where the players go round-n-round the board moving the marbles from cup to cup.

"Or is the ADP number now nothing but a reinforcing surrogate to double the credibility of the BLS data, whose credibility in recent months has also hit unseen lows?"

That's been my thought for the last couple of years.