There are job numbers, and then there are job numbers which make sense in the context of a US population that keeps rising.
By now the trick of lowering the unemployment rate courtesy of a “collapsing” labor force participation rate is known by all. As we showed earlier, the LFP, despite posting a tiny 0.1% uptick in May, was still at 30 year lows. [...]
So how does the narrow unemployment rate (U-3, not to be confused with the wider, Underemployment U-6 rate) look if one applies a longer-term average Labor Force Participation rate of 65.8%?
In a word: not pretty. As of May, assuming realistic LFP assumptions, the real U-3 unemployment rate should have been not 7.6% but 11.3%.