Senate Map Favors the GOP in 2014

Party Is Again Optimistic It Can Win Seats Needed to Recapture the Majority

WASHINGTON—Senate Republicans, after coming up short two elections in a row, are again optimistic they can win the seats needed to recapture the majority in next year's midterm elections.

As in 2012, the map of competitive races tilts heavily in the GOP's favor, with Democrats again defending more competitive seats than the GOP. Democratic retirements also have boosted Republican prospects in states that already were up for grabs.

Republicans have an early edge in three states where senior Democrats are calling it quits: Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. The party also is targeting Democrats in four states President Barack Obama lost last year: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina.

Meanwhile, the only GOP-held seats expected to face a credible Democratic challenge are in Georgia and Kentucky, both of which now tend to vote Republican. GOP candidates may also be able to challenge in other states that now look out of reach, such as Iowa or Michigan, where veteran Democrats are retiring.

You have to say the Senate is broadly in play," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, which tracks races at the state and federal level. "Most of the takeover opportunities are Republican opportunities to take over Democratic seats."

The 2014 elections are still more than a year away, and the GOP has been in a similar position of strength in recent elections. Senate Republicans were widely expected to reclaim their majority last year, only to surrender two additional seats, partly a result of contentious primaries that elevated activist-backed candidates, like Todd Akin in Missouri, who struggled in the general election.

"Republicans have not missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity," said Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "The most striking disparity between Republicans and Democrats is that Democrats are united by a candidate in each of these states, while Republicans are not."

In addition, in order for Republicans to win the six seats they need to assume the majority, they still face a tall task of winning six of the seven most heavily contested Democratic seats, while defending their own turf, particularly in Georgia and Kentucky.

Republicans, for their part, are seeking to persuade donors and activists that the majority is within reach, without inflating expectations.

"There's a lot of work to be done, but we feel very comfortable about the progression of the map in our favor," said Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. "The majority is in play."

Midterm electorates typically favor the GOP, because its supporters tend to be older and whiter. Voters between 18 and 29 years of age accounted for 18% of all voters in 2008 and 19% in 2012, but only 12% in 2010 when there was no presidential contest, according to exit polls. There was a similar drop-off for minorities.

In three states—Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia—Democrats are still searching for a candidate. Republicans don't have an official candidate in Montana, but first-year GOP Rep. Steve Daines is expected to enter the race as the favorite.

Of the remaining battlegrounds, Arkansas may be the Republicans' top target now that freshman Rep. Tom Cotton is entering the race. Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor ended June with nearly $4 million in his campaign account, and he occupies a seat his dad, former Gov. David Pryor, represented for 18 years. But Mr. Obama lost the state by 23 percentage points, and the onetime Democratic stronghold looks solidly Republican.

The president also lost Alaska and Louisiana by double-digits. Democratic Sens. Mark Begich and Mary Landrieu, like Mr. Pryor, have worked hard to cultivate personas independent of their party.

A test case for both parties could be North Carolina, a presidential battleground that broke narrowly for Mr. Obama in 2008 and against him four years later

Republicans have already started painting Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan as a rubber stamp for the president. Democrats will likely seek to cast the eventual GOP nominee as out of touch with the broader electorate.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424...J_WSJ_US_News_5

Can't wait for obamacare to *really* implode, when's the next major implementation?

I wouldn't get your hopes up. If anyone can f up a winning momentum, leave it to the GOPe.