Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) and his Republican colleagues won the shutdown drama in October. However, the effects are still gradually rippling through the electorate. And the full results will depend upon Republicans understanding the strategy (they don't) and continuing to implement conservatives' obvious plan consistently for maximum impact (unlikely).
Approval has dropped five percent for President Barack Obama since the October government shutdown, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal opinion survey. Obama's disapproval rating has reached a toxic 51 percent -- as even Obama-worshiping NBC News admits. Over 50 percent of voters disapproving is considered fatal for an incumbent office holder, at least if he were facing re-election. In a sense he is -- facing the 2014 congressional elections.
Forty-seven percent now think that ObamaCare is a bad idea, up from forty-three percent in this same poll from early October. The race for governor in Virginia has tightened up to within four percent, although Ken Cuccinelli's Mitt Romney-style campaign probably won't withstand the outrageous, unanswered lies told about him by the Democrat.
Skeptics ask: What was achieved by Ted Cruz with his 21-hour filibuster against ObamaCare on the floor of the U.S. Senate? What did Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives accomplish by trying to delay or defund ObamaCare?
To start with, Obama's nice-guy mask slipped, letting average voters see Obama's snarl. Talk show host Roger Hedgecock started calling the President "Barack Obey-Me" due to his arrogant behavior. The mask slipped because Republicans knocked it aside. Obama's shutdown "theater of the absurd" revealed a vindictive, petty tyrant in conflict with his political image, carefully created for superficial "hope and change" voters.
Second, Ted Cruz made it very clear that the ObamaCare disaster is the Democrats' baby. Sen. Cruz, Sen. Mike Lee, and other Republicans succeeded in sharply separating the Republican Party from then-looming disasters, now upon us. So now Democrats own this mess lock, stock, and barrel. Failing to distance the Grand Old Party from ObamaCare on the eve of its disastrous roll-out would have been foolish.
Third, the strategy of conservative Republicans always incorporated a "Second Act" that must follow whenever ObamaCare inevitably fell apart. Cruz anticipated that the American people would realize eventually: "Holy Cow! Those Republicans were right!" In fact, Cruz seized on a perfect opportunity, like a tennis ball hanging in mid-air in perfect position for a tennis pro to smash it effortlessly over the net. But the impacts are still in the process of unfolding.
The ObamaCare website fiasco was part of Ted Cruz's strategy all along. In fact, it did not take any kind of genius to know that these embarrassing developments were coming -- only the courage to act on insight. Millions of Americans being canceled from their insurance and sticker shock from shockingly high rate increases were all built in to the Democrats' Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.
However, it is absurd to view the situation as only a snapshot, viewing only one limited moment in time. A war is not won in a single skirmish. Cruz's critics narrowly view the shutdown as only one single event, not as part of an overall strategy.
Fourth, conservatives understand Ronald Reagan's techniques: winning the policy debate in the public square (eventually) drives elections. Appealing to the public on issues (eventually) changes the votes in Congress.